Interesting thoughts. I don’t think it qualifies as a true insurance product, where the profit comes from the asymmetry in information. Each consumer has a little info asymmetry but no aggregate data, where the value is.
It rather sounds like a stronger form of demand forecasting, based on more committed customers. What would be the penalty for consumers to withdraw their demand? (if it’s all upside it will distort the market, like scalpers)
Its also a kind of future contract where here the value might increase if a purchase is going to happen soon vs in a few months.
Last, companies are generally willing to spend more for acquiring customers than keeping them, since switching costs & brand loyalty work in the favor of sellers. How to segregate the offer between new and existing buyers?